This blog covers, but is not limited to, areas such as ship security, naval ships, risk, risk analysis and safety. The posts are spin offs from my research about risks in novel operations at sea. Or for the Swedish speakers out there; a blog about riskanalys, sjösäkerhet, sjöfartsskydd och fartygsskydd.
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Tuesday, 21 May 2013
Ship security analysis - the effect of ship speed and effective lookout
The threat of piracy to commercial shipping is
a concern for the protection and safeguarding of human lives, property and
environment. Therefore, ships under piracy threat should follow security
measures suggested by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the
Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somali. It is, therefore, important to
choose the proper security measures for the right situation.
This study presents a simulation model that can
be used for probabilistic risk assessments regarding the operation of
commercial ships. This investigation specifically studies the pirate approach
phase and quantifies the effect of ship speed and effective lookout. The
purpose of introducing probabilistic risk assessment into the analysis of
pirate attacks is to meet safety goals more effectively through a well-balanced
combination of proactive and reactive measures whilst keeping focus on the
intended over all purpose of the particular ship.
The study presents collected and documented
knowledge regarding pirate capability, intention and likelihood to perform
attacks. The knowledge is collected from experts with experience from the
situation off the Horn of Africa. The collected information is input to an
influence analysis that identifies the network of influences that govern the
skiff approach. The simulation model describes piracy characteristics and
decision making on the threatened ship, the characteristics and countermeasures
of the ship under attack, as well as weather.
Based on a comparison with available statistics
the overall conclusion of the work is that the threat analysis and the
simulation model can quantify and explain how the studied risk control options
affect the probability of a successful approach. The result therefore
exemplifies how a quantified ship security analysis can support the
recommendations in industry guidelines and also enable recommendations that to
a greater extent can facilitate an educated decision by the ship operators.
Hans Liwång, Chalmers University of Technology and the Swedish National Defence
Jonas W. Ringsberg, Chalmers University of Technology