"Today several nations utilise risk based approaches in military planning. However, the discussion on limitations with the approaches in regard to aspects such as uncertainties, the nature of the threat and risk to civilians is limited.
The aim of
this work is to identify important challenges when applying risk based
approaches to military activity. This article discusses risk based approaches
in general and their military applications. Five generic quality requirements
on risk analysis are presented from research in risk philosophy. Two military
application areas for risk analysis: military intelligence, and risk management
in legal assessments are analysed in relation to the presented quality
requirements on risk analysis.
From the
analysis it is clear that risk analysis is an integral part of the
decision-making analysis and cannot be separated in time, space or
organisationally from the decision-making process in general. Defining the
scenario to analyse, including the time span, is a central task in risk
analysis and will affect every aspect of the risk estimation. Therefore, the
principles for scenario definition must be communicated and continuously
updated throughout the organisation. Handling the uncertainties throughout the
process is also important, especially if the aim is a resilient military
system."
Hans Liwång, Marika Ericson, Martin Bang
Journal of
Military Studies (JMS) is an international peer-reviewed multidiscipline
publication of selected Military Sciences. Publishers:
National Defense University, Finland and Finnish Society of Military Sciences
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