Ship security challenges in high-risk areas: Manageable or insurmountable?

Article abstract:

“Piracy can lead to risks so high that they, according to the International Maritime Organization, are tolerable only if risk reduction is not practicable or is disproportionate to the benefits achieved. Therefore, there is a need for reducing ship security risks in relation to antagonistic threats such as piracy.

The aim of this study is to identify challenges for ship operators when developing their ship security management. Furthermore, this study also investigates two central aspects in the analysis; understanding the threat and understanding how a security threat affects the crew and operation of the ship.

It is clear from the analysis that the importance of subjective aspects beyond a ship operators’ direct control is high. This seems to be the fact for all aspects of the risk management process. The situation is also dynamic as the security risk, as well as the risk perception, can change dramatically even though there are no actual operational changes. As a result, the ship security management process is highly iterative and depends on situations on board as well as conditions out of the ship operator’s control.

In order to make ship security manageable the risk management has to put particular focus on methodological understanding, relevant system understanding and well defined risk acceptance criteria as well as on including all levels of the organization in the risk reduction implementation and on a continuous monitoring.”

Hans Liwång, Karl Sörenson and Cecilia Österman

The full article is available at springer.com, for more details see post Now easy to download.

An examination of the implementation of risk based approaches in military operations

Article Abstract:

"Today several nations utilise risk based approaches in military planning. However, the discussion on limitations with the approaches in regard to aspects such as uncertainties, the nature of the threat and risk to civilians is limited.
 

The aim of this work is to identify important challenges when applying risk based approaches to military activity. This article discusses risk based approaches in general and their military applications. Five generic quality requirements on risk analysis are presented from research in risk philosophy. Two military application areas for risk analysis: military intelligence, and risk management in legal assessments are analysed in relation to the presented quality requirements on risk analysis.

From the analysis it is clear that risk analysis is an integral part of the decision-making analysis and cannot be separated in time, space or organisationally from the decision-making process in general. Defining the scenario to analyse, including the time span, is a central task in risk analysis and will affect every aspect of the risk estimation. Therefore, the principles for scenario definition must be communicated and continuously updated throughout the organisation. Handling the uncertainties throughout the process is also important, especially if the aim is a resilient military system."

Hans Liwång, Marika Ericson, Martin Bang

Journal of Military Studies, Vol 5, No 2 (2014)

Journal of Military Studies (JMS) is an international peer-reviewed multidiscipline publication of selected Military Sciences. Publishers: National Defense University, Finland and Finnish Society of Military Sciences

 

The Swedish Sea Rescue Society

The Swedish Sea Rescue Society (SSRS) saves lives and assists boats at sea off Sweden for free year around without government founding. SSRS is of course based on volunteer work and a nonprofit organization. They also offers a service to their members where they can call for assistance before the situation turns in to an emergency. According to the society the preventative service is a way of thanking their members for their support which enables the society to continue to do what is most important of all, saving lives at sea.

As a result of a big navigational oversight from my behalf I had the opportunity to meet SSRS last year. The incident which started with much blood and physical damage to the boat ended as a rather pleasant and positive experience for the whole family onboard one of SSRS’s boats. After that, with the bleeding stopped, we happily continued the boat vacation (the boat did not need immediate repair, only cleaning) for many days.

Therefore I of course would like to share their video were a plumber and an accountant use some of their spare time to save lives:

Professionals or amateurs?

Accidents, errors and bad judgment happens, or as I posted a couple of posts ago: “Things happen; by chance, as a result of a threat or because somebody makes a mistake. This has always been the case, is the case today and will always be the case”.

At the moment I know almost nothing about the initial cause of the accident off South Korea were several hundred are unaccounted for and most probable dead. No matter the cause I’m surprised that it still (today with supposedly enlighten crews) is possible to misjudge the situation so dramatically.

Lifeboats are hard to use when the ship is heeling, that has been known for many years now. Good alternatives for passenger ships are hard to find. Ordering people to their cabins can’t be a solution. A ship operator must make sure that these situations are prepared for and that crews on passenger ships are well prepared and trained. I would hope that it is what one does in case of an emergency that seperates professionals from amateurs.

My writing, what is it about?

A word cloud based on my post headings (counting phrases instead results in the following popular phrases in my headings: ship security; security analysis; off Somalia; Costa Concordia; armed guards;and arctic waters).

What do we know about the conditions for maritime security?

I recently gave a talk about Civilian shipping in peace, crisis and war with a northern Europe perspective.

Europe is as all other regions of the world dependent on shipping for support of cargo in general, but also for essential goods such as specific types of food and medicine. Without this cargo the way of life as well as quality of life will be affected. This is clearly expressed in for example the US Quadrennial defense review report (Department of Defense, 2010).

Our ports are relatively stationary and can therefore without too much effort be included in the maritime security measures implemented by states to decrease the effects of potential security incidents. This is however a fairly new area to be handled structurally and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) didn’t get involved for real until the introduction of the ISPS code in 2002 (IMO, 2002). Also, the approaches are to a great extent borrowed from airport security which has its limitations when applied to ports and harbors. Therefore, there is still reason to be somewhat skeptical about the efficiency of the port security efforts of today and how much we know about how to assess the efficiency.

Shipping of today is an international business and a ship owner offers his services in the area in the world where he can make good money without too many uncertainties. The shipping in northern Europe has a relatively high quality because the money is good and the uncertainties are low.

But, in the event of a maritime crisis (or simply when maritime security no longer can be guaranteed) when there really is a need for maritime security efforts also including ships of the coasts off Europe:

ð  the uncertainties for ship owners also increase and the high quality ship owners will start operate somewhere else (because they can),

ð  therefore, the conditions for maritime security will drastically change, and

ð  we cannot prepare for maritime security based on the situation of today

So, what do we know about maritime security in time of crisis and based on which assumptions can we study it? Not based on the lessons from the waters off Somalia, that is an entirely different situation.

Refrences
Department of Defense (2010) Quadrennial defense review report. Washington DC: United States of America Department of Defense.
IMO (2002) The International Ship and Port Facilities Security (ISPS) Code. Safety of Life at Sea, Chapter XI-2. London: International Maritime Organisation.

August 10: Dramatic sinking in central Stockholm

The ship had just left for its maiden voyage when it capsized and sank in front of the huge crowd. Onboard were not only crew, but also VIPs and family to the crew. Almost one third of the 150 persons onboard died in the accident. The accident was of course a result of a great amount of errors in the design, construction and preparation processes. No one has been blamed yet, and no one probably will. However, conflicting and too specific requirements are regarded as contributing factors.

Now, closing in on 400 years later, the ship is the central piece in one of the world most visited maritime museum: The Vasa Museum in Stockholm. The ship sank in 1628 and was salvaged 333 years later surprisingly intact (the biggest damaged was done in the years after the sinking when the canons was salvaged).

Vasa at the Vasa Museum in Stockholm. Photo: H. Liwång

The ship was commissioned by the Swedish king Gustav II Adolf, who also set very high demands on the ship. Gustav II Adolf was committed to protecting Sweden’s Lutheran confession with wars in many places in northern Europe. The wars also laid the foundations for Sweden as a great power in Europe in the seventeenths century. Vasa was therefore built in a very international environment with a king almost always abroad in one of his many wars, but also built for a king accustomed to giving precise directives and expecting them to be followed to every point. As IMO writes in the HSC code prescriptive directions are only effective for basic design, not for novelty. That also seemed to be the case 1628. Vasa was built under new strategic and tactical challenges and was therefore bigger and with more cannons than was the case for other ships of the time. Dutch expertise was hired to build the ship and with that came a tradition to build ships without drawings and only based on quantitative relations and rules. Therefore the design was done under a lot of does and don’ts probably not suited for the intended ship size.

Of course there was stability test, but it had to be stopped so that the ship didn’t capsize. So the crew knew that the ship was unsafe! But there were no one powerful enough to take the decision not to sail. Therefore, the ship capsized (or rather heeled so much that the open cannon doors filled the ship with water) at the first gust of wind and sank quickly. However, the sinking give us today an interesting snap shot of the development of complex or military systems in 1628.

What I have realized a couple of times, when using the Vasa case, is that surprisingly many aspects are valid also today; solving future challenges with yesterday’s technology and also that you don’t always needs new technology but need to apply known technology in new ways (there were also ships like Vasa was built at the same time without problems). One difference compared to today is the closeness between the political level (the king) and the building of the ship. However, this difference makes for an easier analysis of the ship design process.

The Vasa ship is a fantastic disaster that Sweden offers to the rest of the world as an attraction, but also as a case to get inspired by when taking on development of complex systems!

(The last time I visited the Vasa museum I got especially affected by how marked by life and sickness even the young and rich was, life can’t have been easy and the everyday pain must have been challenging at least)