This blog covers, but is not limited to, areas such as ship security, naval ships, risk, risk analysis and safety. The posts are spin offs from my research about risks in novel operations at sea. Or for the Swedish speakers out there; a blog about riskanalys, sjösäkerhet, sjöfartsskydd och fartygsskydd.
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Saturday, 16 May 2015
Survivability of an ocean patrol vessel – Analysis approach and uncertainty treatment
New published article in Marine Structures:
Abstract (somewhat extended)
Military ocean patrol vessels (OPVs) are today
an increasingly common type of naval ship. To facilitate the wide range of
tasks with small crews, OPVs represent several ship design compromises between,
for example, survivability, redundancy and technical endurance. Some of
these compromises are new to military ships.
The aim of this study is to examine how the
design risk control options in relation to survivability, redundancy and
technical endurance can be linked to the operational risks in a patrol and surveillance
scenario where the ship can be attacked by a suicide bomber with an IED in a
small boat. The ship operation for a generic OPV, including the actions of the
threat, is modeled with a Bayesian network describing the scenario and the
dependency among different influences. The probabilities for the consequences to
the crew, ship buoyancy and maneuverability as a result of a possible attack
The scenario is described with expert data
collected from subject matter experts. The approach includes an analysis of
uncertainty using Monte Carlo analysis and numerical derivative analysis.
The results show that it is possible to link
the performance of specific ship design features to the operational risk. Being
able to propagate the epistemic uncertainties through the model is important to
understand how the uncertainty in the input affects the output and the output
uncertainty for the studied case is small relative to the input uncertainty.
The study shows that linking different ship design features for aspects such as
survivability, redundancy and technical endurance to the operational risk gives
important information for the ship design decision-making process.
Author: Hans Liwång Department of Military Studies, Swedish Defence
University, 11593, Stockholm, Sweden.