Abstract (somewhat extended)
Military ocean patrol vessels (OPVs) are today
an increasingly common type of naval ship. To facilitate the wide range of
tasks with small crews, OPVs represent several ship design compromises between,
for example, survivability, redundancy and technical endurance. Some of
these compromises are new to military ships.
The aim of this study is to examine how the
design risk control options in relation to survivability, redundancy and
technical endurance can be linked to the operational risks in a patrol and surveillance
scenario where the ship can be attacked by a suicide bomber with an IED in a
small boat. The ship operation for a generic OPV, including the actions of the
threat, is modeled with a Bayesian network describing the scenario and the
dependency among different influences. The probabilities for the consequences to
the crew, ship buoyancy and maneuverability as a result of a possible attack
are calculated.
The scenario is described with expert data
collected from subject matter experts. The approach includes an analysis of
uncertainty using Monte Carlo analysis and numerical derivative analysis.
The results show that it is possible to link
the performance of specific ship design features to the operational risk. Being
able to propagate the epistemic uncertainties through the model is important to
understand how the uncertainty in the input affects the output and the output
uncertainty for the studied case is small relative to the input uncertainty.
The study shows that linking different ship design features for aspects such as
survivability, redundancy and technical endurance to the operational risk gives
important information for the ship design decision-making process.
Author: Hans Liwång
Department of Military Studies, Swedish Defence University, 11593, Stockholm, Sweden.
Department of Military Studies, Swedish Defence University, 11593, Stockholm, Sweden.
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